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Vietnam 13th Party Congress: economic priorities for business

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Vietnam 13th Party Congress ran from 25 January to 1 February 2021 in Hanoi, and it kept the country's economic course steady. The party re-elected its leader, named a new Central Committee and kept its "socialist-oriented market economy" line. For business, the main message is continuity, with some changes in who will run the government.

Sources: Carlyle Thayer, "Vietnam's 13th National Party Congress: Exceptional and Unprecedented," Australian Outlook, 4 February 2021, for the dates, the leadership and the government line. France 24, 31 January 2021, for the re-election date.

What happened at the congress

The congress met at the national convention centre in Hanoi. English Wikipedia lists 1,587 delegates. The party's own congress page gives the theme: unity, democracy, discipline, creativity and development.

Delegates began voting for the new Central Committee on 30 January, the fifth working day, according to Vietnam+. The new committee has 200 members: 180 full members and 20 alternates.

The committee then chose a Politburo of 18 members. That was one fewer than the target of 19. On 31 January, Nguyen Phu Trong, aged 76, was re-elected as General Secretary for a third term. France 24 called this unprecedented in modern Vietnam. Thayer says it needed a special exemption from the age rule.

Sources: English Wikipedia, "13th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam," for the dates, venue and 1,587 delegates. Daihoidang.vn, the party's congress site, for the theme. Vietnam+, 30 January 2021, for the vote on the Central Committee. Thayer, 4 February 2021, for the committee and Politburo numbers. France 24, 31 January 2021, for the third term.

Who will run the economy

The party leader sets the direction. The government carries it out, and several of its top posts will change hands. Thayer reports that Pham Minh Chinh has been nominated as prime minister and Vuong Dinh Hue as chair of the National Assembly. Both posts must be confirmed by the National Assembly, which is due to meet in June.

France 24 reports that Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc was expected to step into the state presidency later in 2021. Treat these as expectations, not facts, until the National Assembly votes.

For a business, this means the people who sign decrees and circulars may change in mid-2021. Rules already in force will not vanish. But the pace of new guidance can slow while the new team settles in. Plan for some delay on any approval that needs a ministry or a prime-ministerial decision.

Sources: Thayer, 4 February 2021, for the nominations and the June confirmation. France 24, 31 January 2021, for the expected moves.

The economic line stays the same

The party describes its model as a "socialist-oriented market economy." The Doi Moi reforms of 1986 set up that framework. In 2006 the party changed its statutes so that members may engage in private business. State-owned firms still hold the "commanding heights" of the economy, in energy, telecoms and banking.

Nothing in the congress reporting suggests that mix will change. Thayer notes that the government side favours closer links with the world economy. France 24 says Prime Minister Phuc has focused on economic growth and trade deals.

The trade record backs this up. In November 2020, Vietnam and 14 other countries signed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership at a virtual ASEAN summit that Vietnam hosted. Exporters and importers should read what that deal means for their goods.

Sources: English Wikipedia, "Communist Party of Vietnam," for the market-economy line, the 1986 reforms, the 2006 change and state firms in key sectors. Thayer, 4 February 2021, for the government stance. France 24, 31 January 2021, for the prime minister's focus. English Wikipedia, "Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership," for the 15 November 2020 signing.

What the congress reports do not tell you yet

The press coverage we reviewed gives the leadership results in detail. It gives few numbers on growth, income or investment. Do not assume a target that you have not read in an official document.

The party has also published development strategy documents for the congress. Read the final versions, in Vietnamese, if your plans depend on the details. An English summary can drop a key word. If you rely on a translated figure, check it against the original text.

Also watch for the follow-up. After a congress, the government usually turns party goals into plans, laws and decrees. Those later texts are what change your costs, permits and tax bill.

Sources: Daihoidang.vn, the party's congress site, for the congress theme and the documents section. Thayer, 4 February 2021, for the lack of economic targets in his review.

What to do now

Keep your current plans. The congress did not announce a break from the past. Use the next few months to prepare.

  • Mark June. Note the date of the National Assembly session that confirms the new government.
  • Ask your advisers. Which of your licences or approvals depend on a ministry that could get a new head?
  • Read the primary texts. Get the official congress documents and have a Vietnamese reader check the parts that touch your sector.
  • Check trade terms. If you ship across borders, review how RCEP and other trade deals apply to your products.
  • Keep a log. Record each new decree or circular that affects your work, with its date and number.

This article is general information about public events. It is not legal or investment advice, and it states the facts as reported by the sources named in each section.

Sources

  • https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/vietnams-thirteenth-national-party-congress-exceptional-and-unprecedented/
  • https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20210131-vietnam-s-ruling-communist-party-re-elects-chief-trong-for-rare-third-term
  • https://www.vietnamplus.vn/dai-hoi-xiii-bo-phieu-bau-ban-chap-hanh-trung-uong-khoa-xiii/692565.vnp
  • https://daihoidang.vn/
  • https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/13th_National_Congress_of_the_Communist_Party_of_Vietnam
  • https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communist_Party_of_Vietnam
  • https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_Comprehensive_Economic_Partnership